Bet the Juice - NFL Strategy & Research
Bet the juice. You heard it here first (maybe, maybe not). Ultimately, the term juice refers to the hold percentage. We uploaded an article surrounding this concept in the hyperlink. For those who just need a quick reminder, juice is basically the percent of money that the book expects itself to win.
Take this quick example: the Cardinals are playing the Rams with a spread of 2.5 favoring the Cardinals. The -2.5 has american odds of -110, same as the +2.5. The -110 translates to an implied odds of 52.4%. Therefore, the implied odds of this scenario is 104.8%... obviously impossible. If both sides get an even amount of money on both sides, the book is expected to make 4.8% on the investment. This is how they make money.
Knowing this information, it is then intuitive that the lower the juice, the better a chance you have to beat the book! So, we have set up a bit of research throughout this NFL season to see if there is a reasonable strategy. Here is an update!
We kept track of the moneyline juice for every NFL game on DraftKings. Spreads do not vary much, hence our tracking of the moneyline. We then wanted to look at any trends within the book that stand out.
Our initial hypothesis was that a lower juice was presented by books due to a lower confidence in the outcome. Lower juices tended to stem from games closer to pick-ems with low spreads. Games expected to be blowouts found ML juices around the 5% mark, whereas pick-ems were closer to 3%. Because of this, we guessed that underdog ML would be a more solid bet, as we get better odds for them.
This turned out to not be the case however, more often than not, the better team wins in the NFL. If we bet underdog ML on low juice games (below 4%), we would be 7.5 units down… not ideal. Because our hypothesis wasn’t working out, there had then been a pattern in its opposition, right? If we bet favorites, we would be 3 units up. Favorites are winning nearly 70% of these low juice games. And they are covering almost 60% of those times (90% of the times they win).
Do what you will with this information, however we see it as a solid indicator that the pattern could prevail. We will continue to monitor this trend.
Instead of leaving with simply a cool strategy, leave with a lesson. Despite your initial hypotheses, do not blindly bet on these. Do individual research to see if the patterns fit your hypothesis, because it could be just the opposite! Happy smart sports betting!
