How to Win Bets on Football: The Basic Techniques
Football is one of the most popular sports in the United States and generates incredibly high revenues, and is also the first thing many people think of when it comes to sports betting. With a strong brand that dominates American attention, sports books are getting rich because many people don’t know how to win bets on football.
Even if you understand the basic markets, it is wise to take a closer look at the primary football bets for a complete understanding of how odds are set and the tendencies of the betting public, information that can help you make smarter sports bets. Let’s get into it!
How to Win Bets on Football: The Moneyline
The easiest and most well-known bet that can be placed is the moneyline bet. A moneyline bet is simple, all you are doing is picking which team you believe is going to win the game, regardless of the final score. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Jacksonville Jaguars. A moneyline may open at -300/+210. These positive and negative numbers represent the hold percentage, which are dictated by the American Odds system. In this case, the -300/+210 will tell an informed bettor that the Chiefs have roughly a 75% chance to win the game, as opposed to 25% for the Jags.
There’s a lot to learn about the odds system and how the hold affects a sophisticated betting strategy, but let’s keep it simple for now. The key takeaway here is the favored team will have negative odds (you’ll win less than your stake if you hit) and the underdog team will have the positive odds (you’ll win more than your stake if you hit). After you learn the basic football bets, you can use the odds to develop a more advanced football betting strategy, like combining moneyline favorites into a parlay bet.
Now, let’s mix things up and look at the moneyline vs spread.
Spread
Similar to other sports, the spread bet is choosing a team to win or lose by a set number of points. An example of this would be a spread of 6.5. In the above example, the Chiefs would be -6.5 point favorites and the Jags +6.5 point underdogs. This says the Chiefs (the favorite), must win by 7 points or more to cover the spread. Therefore, the Jags (the underdog) must not lose by more than that total for their side of the bet to hit. Point spreads vary depending on the level of competition in football, unlike hockey and baseball where they stay fairly consistent. Normally these spreads will open with even odds of -110/-110, but if a majority of money comes in on one side, say for the Jaguars to cover, sportsbooks will hedge their position by increasing their hold percentage so it “costs” you more to win that bet. In other words, the -110 might move to -120, meaning you’ll win even less if this bet hits.
On important factor about learning how to win football bets is to be aware of sportsbook tendencies like home field advantage, which is typically worth a point or two in favor of the home team. This is particularly acute in college football, where home field advantage plays a large factor. Other things to note are game locations (west coast teams traveling to the east coast for 1pm kickoffs, for example), weather, and key injuries announced on game day.
What should stand out from the spread vs moneyline is that the two play off of each other. Both are predicting a winner in their own way. The difference between the two is that in a moneyline bet, the odds reflect the implied odds (or risk), whereas in the spread’s case, the point value reflects the implied odds.
Over/Under Betting
The over under bet is straightforward; it’s simply a wager that the total points in a given game will be less than (under) or more than (over) the line set by the sportsbook. It is one of the more popular football bets for new gamblers, so understanding the way people approach it is important in learning how to win bets on football. First, consider how the line is set. The oddsmaker’s goal in an over/under bet is to set a total that encourages balance on both sides. If you watch enough football, you will quickly gain an appreciation for just how good the oddsmakers are at setting a total line that reflects the actual outcome on the field.
However, the betting public tends to bet with their hearts, and that means over bets tend to get more action. Casual fans just like to watch offence, so you may see higher hold percentages on this side. Sportsbooks also adjust their lines to maintain balance. In big games like Monday Night Football, College Football Bowl Games, and the Super Bowl, a good strategy is to “fade the public” by waiting to see how high the oddsmakers will move the total as the game gets closer. You may find great value in the under market in these situations. While I live by the saying “Life’s too short to bet the under”, sports books are nearly perfect markets for a reason and it’s important you not to get carried away cheering for points.
Prop Bets
As mentioned before, football is one of the most popular sources of betting in the world and prop bets are a huge contributor to that. Prop bets are separate from the traditional moneyline, spread, and over under markets, and there are many choices. The most popular football prop bets are individual player performance, which is growing in popularity due to fantasy football where player stats are always in focus. To see prop bets offered on a given game, open that market in your betting app and scroll over to see what they offer. Typically, you’ll see passing props, rushing and reception props, and even prop bets on alternate spreads and totals such as first half lines.
Football prop bets are very similar to baseball prop bets, but here’s the gist: you are betting on whether a player will reach a set figure. An example would be betting on whether Tyreek Hill will catch more or less than 7.5 receptions. You’re betting on the O/U for a specific player in a specific stat category. Be careful! These are the bets that make football quite fun, but also extremely frustrating.
Summary
Football is already one of the greatest sports to watch in the world. With your favorite team only playing in 1 of the 15 games each week, sports betting brings a great, fun incentive to watch all the others! Study these tips to learn how to win bets on football, and remember to always bet with your head and not over it!
