Betting on Golf: The Basics
In this opening golf betting guide, I will address how to bet on golf and provide tips for the best ways to go about doing so. All in all, this will hopefully give you some extra knowledge necessary to maximize your chances of making smarter golf picks and making good decisions when betting on golf.
Before I get into the specifics of golf betting, let’s take a look at the various tours so you understand what and who you can place wagers on. The PGA Tour (Professional Golfers Association) primarily holds tournaments in the United States, with the main part of each season running from January through September. Its most prestigious events are the PGA Championship (one of the four majors, now played in May after being held in August in the past), the Players Championship (March), and the Tour Championship (the Fed Ex Cup finale in September). The LPGA Tour is the women’s equivalent of the PGA Tour. One difference is that the women play five annual majors per season, whereas there are only four on the men’s circuit. Many of Europe’s best golfers play the majority of their schedule close to home on the European Tour. This tour sanctions the British Open, which is the fourth and final major on the calendar. The Korn Ferry Tour is the proverbial minor leagues of golf below the main PGA Tour. Many golfers who fail to earn a PGA Tour card take their talents to the Korn Ferry Tour and try to work their way up. It has previously been known as the Ben Hogan Tour, the Nike Tour, the Buy.com Tour, the Nationwide Tour, and the Web.com Tour. On the Champions Tour, golfers must be at least 50 years old to participate.
How To Bet on Golf: Tournament Futures
The most popular bets in the world golf are futures. After all, golf is not like most sports in that there aren’t really one-on-head, head-to-head matchups (aside from the recent WGC-Match Play Championship). Although this a market for low-round scores between certain players, those are arbitrary matchups; they aren’t actually playing against each other like two players would in a tennis tournament—or like two teams would in basketball, baseball, football, hockey etc. Thus it is the futures market that reigns supreme on the links. Those futures odds are generally set based on players’ current form (closely linked to his or her world golf ranking), past history at the particular tournament (assuming that tournament has remained at the same courts, which is not the case for three of the four majors), and in some cases the layout of a particular course. For example, long hitters are usually going to fare better at the Masters; precise ball-strikers would be more enthusiastic about their chances at the British Open.
Outright tournament winners are the most popular futures bets. Favorites to win a title before the week begins are generally in the +800 to +1000 range. Yes, it’s that hard to win a golf tournament even for the best players in the world. Perhaps if someone is completely dominating the tour at the time and they are part of a field that isn’t too strong, you could find a favorite at +600 or so. But that is rare—and probably wouldn’t offer much value.
Other common futures markets include finishing in the top 10, finishing in the top 20, and making the cut. Obviously a top-10 bet is much safer than an outright win bet and therefore the payout is understandably less. For example, someone who is +1000 to win the tournament could be +175 or so to finish in the top 10. The cut takes players following two rounds out of four at traditional golf tournaments. In general, two-thirds of the playing field advances to compete on the two weekend rounds of a competition. Obviously the majority of players are minus money at most sportsbooks to make the cut, but there is still plenty of value to be found in that market.
How to Bet on Golf: Over/Under Betting
The over/under on an individual golfer’s score is another option that can also be taken advantage of at many tournaments—especially at majors. That market is most often offered for the first round of events on Thursdays. It’s a simple concept; will a certain player shoot over or under his posted score? If the over/under for a golfer’s round is 71.5 and he or she shoots 72 or worse, an over bet wins; 71 or better and an under bet in the money.
As mentioned above, various shops will arbitrarily pit two golfers against each other in a virtual head-to-head matchup and you can bet on which one will post a better score on a particular day. For example, in a matchup featuring Dustin Johnson and Tony Finau on Day 1 of the Masters, Johnson might be a -130 favorite, Finau might be a +100 favorite, and a tie might be +240.
Now that the tours and markets have been discussed, it’s time to discuss some sound strategies to make smarter golf bets. With the Masters coming up this week, we will focus on that specific event.
How to Bet on Golf: The Tips to Set You Apart
Tip #1: Hammer underdogs on the aforementioned outright futures market. In our tennis betting overview, we talked about how on the men’s tour the favorites almost always win. That’s not just because the guys at the top of the sport are so good; it’s also because a player generally has to win only five matches (seven in a major) to lift the trophy. That means he has to defeat only five players in the entire draw. In every golf tournament, of course, a player must beat everyone in order to win it. With the exception of Tiger Woods in the 2000s, generally no golfer with +700 odds or better (+600, +500, etc.) has represented good pre-tournament value.
Johnson is a +800 favorite ahead of Jon Rahm (+1000), Bryson DeChambeau (+1100), and Justin Thomas (+1100). You could actually make a case for sprinkling a few bucks on Johnson even at that price the way he dominated at Augusta National last fall (the Masters was moved from April to November because of the coronavirus pandemic). However, he has cooled off a bit and there are so many other guys playing great gold right now that it’s tough to justify taking one of the favorites. You may find better value in the likes of Finau (+2200), Collin Morikawa (+2800), Viktor Hovland (+3300), and Lee Westwood (+4000).
Tip #2: pay attention to tournament history. As mentioned earlier, a golfer can be well-suited for a course like Augusta National (the Masters) but not as poised to do well at St. Andrews (a frequent British Open choice). Look for golfers who may not be among the most famous players but have fared well at a particular tournament in the past. That is often where the best value can be located.
Nowhere is this more important than at the Masters—the only one of the four majors that is held at the same site every single year. Some veteran players know the ins and outs of Augusta’s hallowed grounds like the back of their hand. Past champions like Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, and Sergio Garcia have to be considered. Finau has a nice track record at Augusta, as well, and in-form Westwood has contended several times at this major. Johnson especially inspires confidence based on how he worked his way around the course in 2020. At the same time, conditions in the spring are not going to be the same as they were in the fall. It’s going to be a much different Masters.
Tip #3: pay attention to events after they begin and try your hand at in-game betting. A pre-tournament favorite who does not play as well as expected on a Thursday will see his or her odds plummet. If that player is at least still within striking distance of the leaderboard, however, he or she may suddenly come with good value. Also familiarize yourself with which golfers are generally strong closers (on the back nine on Sunday, for example) and which ones fold down the stretch with pressure heats up. For example, taking the under on Tiger Woods’ fourth-round score was almost always a winner during his heyday. The case was often the same for Spieth in 2015 and 2016. At the other end of the spectrum, fading Finau and Rickie Fowler on Sundays has proven to be a lucrative endeavor, as well.
Specific to the Masters, snagging one of the top players of the world at something like +2000 if he fails to go low on Day 1 may be a great idea. However, after three days of action it probably isn’t as wise to back someone to come from behind on the final. Of all the majors, the Masters is most known for producing champions who played in the final group on Sunday. With a green jacket on the line, frontrunners generally thrive on arguably the most important and most anticipated day on the annual golf calendar.
If you employ some of the strategies in this blog that can help you make smarter golf picks, hopefully betting on golf can prove to be both entertaining and productive. Sign up for our newsletter to stay up to date on how to make smarter sports bets. Good luck to all and as always, be responsible with your gambling; always bet with your head and not over it!