Strategies for Better College Basketball Betting
In our last post we reviewed the fundamentals of college basketball betting and showed exactly how to place a bet on NCAA hoops. Now that you understand these basics, we’ll focus this post on tips for making smarter (and hopefully more successful) college basketball bets in markets such as the moneyline vs spread and over under betting.
Using Stats and Analytics to Inform College Basketball Betting
One of the most important elements to understand when looking at college basketball bets is the role that statistics and analytics play in handicapping these events. Basketball as a sport lends itself to an incredible array of metrics one can review to determine how two teams match up against one another. Online books and Vegas books alike use these metrics and it is no coincidence that the daily spreads you will find when placing bets on NCAA games will closely mirror projections from reliable metrics.
So you may be asking yourself, well what are these metrics and where can I find them to help make good betting decisions? Let’s start with what they are. While there are plenty to choose from overall the best one-stop location for basketball projections and basically any data you could hope to find is produced by Ken Pomeroy and found on his website (www.kenpom.com). Yes, this is behind a paywall, but at under $20 a year it is well worth an investment for even most novice college basketball bettors looking to improve their performance over the course of the season.
Pomeroy or “KenPom” builds on established steps from others in the industry such as Bill James to hone in on the concept of a basketball “possession” and “points per possession.” Simply put, the model takes a familiar sports concept (a possession) and examines how many points a team scores per possession and allows per possession. Then the model adjusts these numbers for the strength of the opponent each team played throughout the season.
You could write a book or two on the more intimate details of how this model works, but for this purpose it is simple enough to point out that KenPom’s model allows a predictive look at how each team in the country would fare against future opponents at any given point. For example, if North Carolina and Duke are slated to play each other tonight and you see that Vegas lists Duke as a six point favorite, you can cross-reference this line with the projection from KenPom.
However, not only does KenPom provide you with a comparative line, it also provides you with a predicted final score based on the aforementioned adjusted points per possession. This is immensely helpful as it provides information not only regarding the moneyline bet and the spread bet, but gives insight into the over/under as well. These stats-driven predictions give you a way to compare the markets against an existing analytics model.
How to Use Stats and Analytics for Smarter Bets
So how do you use models like KenPom or Sagarin for better college basketball betting? Look for discrepancies in these predictions and the spreads and odds offered by your sportsbook. Let’s take the example above, where Duke is a 6 point favorite over North Carolina. If you see KenPom predicted a final score of Duke 79 and UNC 71, that can mean a few different things, depending on where the line opened. Because sportsbooks use advanced analytics to set their opening lines, you would presume that Duke opened as closer to an 8 point favorite. Given the line is now 6 points, you can assume a majority of the bets are on Carolina’s side, causing the sportsbooks to move the line down from the predicted 8 points to their offered 6 points. They do this to encourage more bets on Duke, because sportsbooks are always looking for a balanced market to encourage relatively equal action on either side to hedge themselves against big losses. This is normal line movement, as the spread has moved closer to the majority of bets. Sharp bettors love to “fade the public” and pounce on lines that go against their models. To see such a big move (2 points towards Carolina) might suggest a bet on Duke provides move value, although you should consider the hold percentage on that line as well.
There are also situations where a line can move away from the team receiving the majority of bets. For example, lets say the line opened at 8 points for Duke, and most of the bets come in favoring the Blue Devils. This forces the books to move their lines away from the majority side, and now you see the line is Duke -6. This is an example of reverse line movement and usually implies that sharp bettors think Duke is going to win by more than 8 points, so they move the line towards Carolina to encourage more bets on the Tar Heels. Tracking reverse line movement is very difficult, since betting markets are dynamic and it is difficult to maintain awareness on how lines move within market-setting versus market-following sportsbooks. ActionNetwork offers a tool that can help you monitor line movement, and can be a useful resource for seasoned bettors.
For novice bettors, try to be aware of where lines open. The CBS Sports app makes this easy with an Odds section showing the opening spread (set by Caesars Sportsbook) simply looking at where a line opened compared to where it is when you are considering your bet. They also show you the public betting percentage. If you see Duke opened at -8, but the current line is -6, and 65% of the bets are on Carolina, this would imply value is on Duke given KenPom’s prediction of an 8 point Duke victory.
Consider Context & Timing for Smarter College Basketball Betting
An important aspect to point out about KenPom (as well as other predictive models like Sagarin - who also provides a great, and free, service on his own website) is where these models can fall short. Unlike online and Vegas books which set basketball spreads either the day before or day of each individual game, and then change those lines according to how the market reacts, statistical models do not adjust for injuries, trends, or any absences a team may have for a given game. So you should take their predictions with this grain of salt, and make sure you are aware of the overall context of each team. By context, we mean such factors as injury reports, the location of the game, and each team’s schedule going into the contest. There are also intangible factors like the strength of the rivalry. As Duke and Carolina is one of the fiercest college basketball rivalries, you typically expect underdogs to perform above their expectations, despite what the analytics suggest.
Twitter is a great resource for real time information about game context. Find the beat reporters that cover each team and monitor their feeds for practice reports and news about individual players. A lot of the best information is behind a paywall, but subscriptions to sites like The Athletic and 247Sports (in our opinion, the best resource for college sports) aren’t expensive. The insights you can gather around context will help you make smarter bets and more than justify the annual subscription fees. You can also look at message boards, but keep in mind that these sites are rife with unsubstantiated rumors and wishful thinking.
It’s also worth noting that sports markets are very reactive to contextual news, so by the time you see an injury report, it’s likely the books have already incorporated that into their line. This is especially true for major markets like NFL football, as there are fewer games and thus less variables for books to consider. On some smaller basketball markets (UNC vs Duke not being a good example), sportsbooks can be slower to respond to contextual information. Again, it is worth a bit of diligence before you place your bet to compare the stats to the current markets and opening lines. If you haven’t seen the movement at your book that you would have expected based on the news you receive, there’s a good chance you can get value on the bet and make a smarter wager.
Another good context element is looking at prior schedules and team trends. If Duke has played three games in the last week, and one of them was a double overtime victory over NC State, you could anticipate that Duke might be playing their game against Carolina on tired legs. While this is likely factored into the spread, no market is perfect, and you may be able to spot a good bet with this information. Contextual elements, especially for smaller market college basketball games, are enough to swing a game by multiple points in either direction and would not immediately reflect in KenPom models or the betting market.
Timing Elements for Smart College Basketball Betting
Finally, an important point to consider when placing an NCAA basketball bet is when to place the bet. Most gamblers would tell you that you will find the most value against the opening line if you are able to place a bet as close to when the line comes out as possible. Unlike NCAA football where the lines come out each preceding Sunday for matchups, college basketball lines generally come out either the morning before or the morning of each game. This means that you need to keep a close eye on your book to see when bookies release the numbers.
The advantages to placing an early bet are that you can identify lines that you believe are “off” compared to where you believe the line should fall and you can get your bet in ahead of the public which may cause a line to move in a specific direction. A good example of when lines may move due to public money are matchups where one team is considerably more popular or well-known than another (a Duke-Mercer NCAA matchup for instance) or when one team enters on a winning streak or off a particularly impressive win causing folks to slightly overrate how good that team really is.
One obvious shortcoming of firing off early bets is that you lose the ability to adapt your bet if news comes out closer to game time regarding an injury or other circumstances. If it is uncertain whether or not a key player will be able to play or not, it may be wise to wait until more information comes out closer to tip off. However, this also may provide you with an opportunity to get the jump on the market as well if you are willing to accept the risk that a key player is out.
How to Make Better Bets on College Basketball: The Conclusion
This article merely scratches the surface on what you should look at when placing a bet on college basketball, but provides a great overview for making smarter and better bets overall. In short you should focus on the context of each team while reviewing existing metrics to determine if you are firing off a winner. While it may feel good to bet on a “gut feeling” or rely solely on the “eye test” when picking a game, over time conducting research will only increase your winnings as your gambling sample size increases.
Good luck my friends and as always, be responsible with your gambling and never gamble with money that you cannot afford to lose!