How to Bet NBA Player Props: Strategies & Advice
Player props are a huge market in the sports betting industry, and NBA basketball is one of the leading sports for prop betting. With 1230 games played in the regular season alone, bettors can find opportunities to bet on their favorite players without focusing on the traditional spread, moneyline, and over under markets.
Success (or failure) hinges on statistics, but factors such as matchups and player health have a big impact on betting decisions. All this makes NBA player props an extremely fun endeavor that makes watching games all the more interesting and even quite lucrative…if you know what you’re doing. So let’s dive into the world of NBA props, explaining what they are and discussing the strategies with which to take advantage of the market.
What are NBA Player props?
NBA player prop bets are individual betting markets in which wagers can be made for both a single game and for an entire season. Season-long props are more of a futures market, such as who will lead the league in points, rebounds, and assists, and for the star players some sportsbooks may have an over/under number for a certain statistic. The most popular are single-game props, which is the area in which we will focus here.
Points, rebounds, assists, and other common prop markets
The most popular prop plays are made on players to score over/under a certain number of points, grab over/under a certain number of rebounds, and dish out over/under a certain number of assists in a single game. You can also play any combination thereof at most sportsbooks, such as points + rebounds, points + assists, rebounds + assists, and also the sum of all three. Three-pointers made is also a common betting option.
More exotic markets
Steals and blocks are also readily available, even if they aren’t as popular as the big three of points, rebounds, and assists. There are also so few of them in general that it makes betting more difficult and also makes any kind of line move incredibly significant. For example, a line shift from O/U 1.5 blocks to O/U 2 blocks is a much bigger change percentage wise than a line moving from O/U 30.5 points to O/U 31.5 points even though that points line technically moved more. That is something to keep in mind while preparing to bet either side of an over/under prop. It’s not easy to bet on such a low number of steals and rebounds, but value can be found in certain spots.
To record a double-double – This is a bet on a player to reach double-digits in two statistical categories (generally points, assists, and/or rebounds, but also steals or blocks).
To record a triple-double – This is a similar bet on a player to reach double-digits in three statistical categories. This market is only available on players who have realistic chances to do so and you will generally get extremely long odds unless it’s involving LeBron James or Russell Westbrook, for example.
To be the game’s leading scorer – With most games you can get on the overall leading scorer. A player must score the most points (in the whole game, not just on his team) to cash.
Player points head-to-head matchups – In most games certain sportsbooks will offer head-to-head scoring props, sometimes between players on different teams and in some cases between players on the same team. For example, in a game between the Hornets and Pistons there could be points prop offered for LaMelo Ball vs. Gordon Hayward and also one for Ball vs. Jerami Grant.
Tips for Making Smart NBA Prop Bets
1) Ride the hot hand. When you’re hot, you’re hot. It sounds simple, but—at least in basketball—it’s the truth. In baseball a batter can easily go cold if the opposing team sends Gerrit Cole to the mound. In football a star running back can rack up a ton of yards one week but then run into the Bucs’ defense the next week. Good luck with that! In basketball, however, it’s easier to stay on a hot streak. Pay attention to a player’s last five or 10 games and if they have been on fire in a certain area, hammer the over for that prop.
If Stephen Curry is averaging seven three-pointers on 13 attempts over his last five games, chances are good he will continue to fork up threes—and make them—in his next outing. If Chris Paul is averaging 14 assists over the last 10 games, you have to think the Suns will keep running an offense in which Paul is the master facilitator. At the same time, don’t be afraid to back the under for certain props in which a player has been ice cold in recent weeks. Sportsbooks generally set lines based on player season averages, or if it’s early in the season on the previous season’s averages. There are always some lines that can be exploited.
2) Focus on the opposing team. Despite what I just said about players going into unstoppable mode every now and then, in general it is extremely important to take note of particular matchups. Player personnel and defensive strategies can vary wildly from team to team in the NBA. While someone like Curry can be immune to a stout defense, the same cannot be said of mere mortals. In most cases you aren’t going to want to take the over on three-pointers made for a player facing the Knicks. Similarly, unless the number is extremely low you are incurring a big risk by backing the over on a player’s rebounds if he is going up against Utah center Rudy Gobert. Even assists can be impacted. Opponents assisted on only 53.9 percent of their made baskets against the Jazz in 2020-21, while opposing teams assisted on 66.6 percent of their baskets against the Raptors. Make sure you are familiar with those kinds of important defensive numbers before placing offense-oriented prop bets.
3) Don’t be afraid to hammer the under. It’s not the sexy play, but there is often more value on unders than on overs. It isn’t as fun fading a player who is ice cold as it is to tail a guy who is red hot. Nobody likes to watch NBA games and root for brick after brick to be shot en route to a 77-71 final score. But because nobody likes to do that, the public money on prop bets is skewed toward overs, drives up the number and/or the odds on that prop, and thus creates value on the under. Statistics generally create value on the under, as well—especially with star players. All-stars like LeBron and Kevin Durant are much more likely to score 50 in a game (well above their average) than 13 (well below their average). In the case of LeBron and K.D., their mean scoring average is going to be larger than their median. LeBron may be scoring 27.0 ppg, for example, but at the same time he would likely be scoring fewer than 27.0 ppg more than 50 percent of the time. That’s because his 50-point barrages skew the mean. Thus it’s easy to see why—depending on the opponent—betting the under on 26.5 points for LeBron could be the value play. The same scenarios can be discussed for Clint Capela’s rebounds and James Harden’s assists. Again, why can under bets be smart? One, the mean is generally larger than the median. Two, the public hammers overs. Those factors can lead to less-than-sharp numbers and odds posted by sportsbooks.
4) Pay attention to starting lineups and general player availability news. There are only five players on the floor, of course, in an NBA game. Just one absence can often have a much bigger impact on what happens in a game than in the NFL (unless it’s quarterback) or Major League Baseball, for example. Kawhi Leonard being out, for example, would severely hinder the Clippers’ defensive capabilities. Trae Young on the sidelines for the Hawks means scoring must be made up elsewhere—such as a lot more shot attempts for John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic. There is also far more “load management” in the NBA than in other sports. You will see it every now and then in baseball, but no healthy player is taking a game off in the NFL when there are only 17 of them per season. In the NBA it is happening with more and more frequency. A veteran sitting out either the first or second game of a back-to-back situation is the most obvious example. Whatever the case, it is essential to be aware of injuries and the announced starting lineups before diving headlong into a prop bet that may seem too good to be true prior to doing your due diligence in the research department.
5) Make multiple plays and correlate them. Betting on multiple props in a single game can be an effective, multi-winning strategy. For example, picking the over on Curry’s points and/or three-pointers made would work well with an over bet on Draymond Green’s assists. Those would also correlate nicely with a Warriors win and/or cover, as well. Similarly, a cold shooting night for Curry would naturally result in fewer assists for Green. You can even combine multiple plays (such as Warriors ML, Green assists, Curry points) in a same game parlay, which is a betting market that is becoming increasingly popular in all sports.
What to Remember When You’re Wagering NBA Prop Bets
As mentioned above, there can be several advantages to betting on NBA player props. One thing is certain: it makes games more fun to follow and watch. A moneyline vs spread play could already be sure to hit or miss by halftime in a blowout, but your props could remain in play until the final buzzer. That keeps things interesting and exciting.
More importantly, of course, is that props can be lucrative. Sportsbooks are often incredibly sharp on their game lines and totals; after all, there aren’t that many NBA teams and NBA games in the grand scheme of things. It isn’t hard to be sharp on all of them. But there can be hundreds of props available on a busy day in the league and—for various reasons—not all of the posted numbers are going to be accurate. That is when you can pounce on opportunities. But be sure to follow the advice listed above and gather all of the pertinent team and player information before hitting the submit button on a prop bet.